Takeaways from the 2022 midterm elections: Battle for control of the House and Senate still up in the air

CNN
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The battle for control of Congress is still up in the air, with the Senate coming down to three key races while Democrats and Republicans are still hanging onto hopes of winning a narrow majority in the House.

Republicans began the night with a rout in Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis won heavily Latino, historically Democratic regions on his way to a blowout victory that could serve as a launch pad for a 2024 presidential run.

But in the hours that have followed, Democrats reclaimed ground. In Pennsylvania, Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman defeated Republican Mehmet Oz for the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.

Meanwhile, the battle for the House majority – one that favored Republicans, who expected to benefit from high inflation, historical trends and friendly new district lines after 2021’s redistricting – remains unsettled.

CNN analyst: Here’s what DeSantis’ projected victory could mean for the GOP

Here are nine takeaways as votes are still being counted in key races:

Republicans were not shy about the importance of Pennsylvania’s Senate race: “This is a must-win race. We believe if we win Pennsylvania, we win the majority,” said Steven Law, president of the preeminent Republican Senate super PAC.

Early on Wednesday morning, CNN projected that Fetterman would be the next senator from Pennsylvania, defeating Oz in the most expensive and high stakes Senate campaign in the country.

Fetterman’s win was a thunderclap for Democrats. While the race long represented the best chance for the party to pick up a Senate seat in 2022, Fetterman’s near fatal stroke in May – and the lengthy recovery he endured in public – injected uncertainty into the race. But on Wednesday morning, the Pennsylvania lieutenant governor gave Democrats the pick-up they needed to have a better chance to hold the United States Senate next year.

“Fetterman’s win makes it next to impossible for the GOP to get a majority. Pennsylvania was the fire wall,” said Mike Mikus, a Democratic operative based in Western Pennsylvania.

Although a number of key Senate races remain uncalled – including contests in Nevada and Arizona and in Georgia which will go to a runoff – earlier on Tuesday, CNN projected one Democratic incumbent: Sen. Maggie Hassan, a first-term Democrat who faced Republican retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, won her race.

A Hassan loss would have effectively ended Democrats’ hopes of retaining their majority. And CNN projected Wednesday that Republican Ron Johnson will keep his Senate seat in Wisconsin. The Democrats are still defending seats in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada – so it will take time to settle Senate control.

CNN political director breaks down top issue for most voters

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CNN

Election Day is over but many of the fundamental questions of this election cycle remain unanswered.

To start, control of the Senate remains up for grabs. Fetterman’s victory in Pennsylvania, flipping a GOP seat, gave Democrats some breathing room as they await results from Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. Republicans now need to win two of those three to claim a majority, but the Georgia Senate race will go to a runoff in December after no candidate won more than 50% of the vote.

The shape of the House, too, remains uncertain. Republicans appear poised to take control but there are scant signs of the big night they were hoping for. As the votes continue to be counted, the next day (or more) will likely reveal the strength of a new GOP House majority – and whether a potentially underwhelming performance undermines Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s standing within a rancorous GOP conference. The GOP is now in a race-by-race fight that will ultimately determine McCarthy’s ability to govern.

Then there’s Trump and Biden.

The president is expected to address the election results sometime on Wednesday. Having avoided a “shellacking,” what will Biden’s takeaways be?

Trump, on the other hand, has already provided some clues on his views. He celebrated the defeats of some moderate Republicans on his social media site, but has yet to mention Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his potential 2024 GOP presidential primary rival, who was emphatically reelected to another term.

Few Republicans were more involved in these midterms than Trump and the former president had a particularly bad night.

It appears that Trump knows it, too: He is “livid” and “screaming at everyone,” a Trump adviser who has been in contact with Trump’s inner circle told CNN on Wednesday morning.

The most striking loss for Trump came in Pennsylvania, where his chosen candidate, Oz, fell to Fetterman in what was the most expensive Senate race in the country. Trump endorsed Oz during the contentious Republican primary, effectively pulling through a brutal primary and narrowly into the general election. But where the former president’s backing was decisive in the primary, it was an albatross in the general election for a Republican Senate candidate who was attempting to make inroads in the suburbs by touting his own moderation.

While Trump did score some Senate wins – Trump-backed Republican JD Vance defeated a stronger-than-expected challenge from Democrat Tim Ryan in the Ohio Senate race, while Republican Ted Budd defeated Democrat Cheri Beasley in North Carolina – those wins have so far been limited to Republican states.

In the House, too, some Trump acolytes lost in what were seen as competitive contests that Republicans needed to win if they were going to build a significant majority in the legislative body.

In New Hampshire, former Trump aide Karoline Leavitt lost to Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in what was seen as a highly competitive contest. In North Carolina, Trump-backed Republican Bo Hines lost to Democrat Wiley Nickel in a race that was widely seen as a test of the former president’s influence. And in Ohio, Democratic state Rep. Emilia Sykes defeated Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert who bullishly touted her ties to Trump.

Trump’s evening was particularly bad when viewed through the lens of DeSantis’ romp of a night.

DeSantis, Trump’s clearest rival for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, overwhelmingly won reelection on Tuesday, crushing Democrat Charlie Crist by nearly 20 percentage points, continuing to consolidate Latino support in Florida and even by winning populous counties like Miami-Dade.

The headline in Trump’s one-time hometown paper, the New York Post, said it all: “DeFUTURE,” the headline blared, showing the Florida Republican on stage with his family.

In 2018, the suburbs delivered Democrats the House majority. In 2020, they vaulted Joe Biden to the presidency.

And in 2022, suburbs across the country went a long way to helping Democrats avoid a significant red wave.

Republicans may still win the House, but if the 2022 election was going to be a red wave, it was likely to come through suburban victories that have not materialized yet.

In a district made up of the Kansas City suburbs, CNN projected Democrat Sharice Davids would win reelection. In Ohio, CNN projected two suburban wins: Democrat Greg Landsman defeated Republican Rep. Steve Chabot in a district that included Cincinnati and some of the surrounding suburbs and Democratic state Rep. Emilia Sykes defeated Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert in a district that includes areas around Cleveland and all of Akron. In Illinois, CNN projected that Democratic incumbent Lauren Underwood would win reelection against Republican Scott Gryder in the Chicago suburbs. And in Virginia, CNN projected Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger would win reelection, largely because of the votes she picked up from the suburbs of Washington, DC.

Republicans did score some suburban victories – CNN projected Brandon Ogles the winner in a district around Nashville, Tom Kean Jr. winning in a suburban New Jersey district and Rich McCormick the victor in a district that included Atlanta’s northern suburbs – but it was their defeats that spoke volumes about the size of the GOP wave.

Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, a member of the House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, lost her Virginia Beach-based House seat, CNN projected.

Luria’s loss to Kiggans, Republican Navy veteran, was the latest demonstration that the lasting focus on the insurrection – even as it sheds light on a dark chapter in the nation’s capitol – is a political anchor for those involved.

Luria had defeated former GOP Rep. Scott Taylor in 2018 and 2020. But the district had become slightly more favorable ground for Republicans in redistricting: Biden carried the previous version by 5 points, and would have lost the new district by 2 points.

And Luria provided the latest evidence that voters are not rewarding those involved in the committee probing the insurrection. Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney was routed in a primary by Trump-backed challenger Harriet Hageman, while Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois and Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a Florida Democrat, both retired rather than seeking reelection.

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