China Exports & Imports Rebound In April

China’s exports and imports rebounded more than expected in April after a weak trade data in the previous month that boost hopes that net trade would support economic growth, official data revealed Thursday.

Largely due to the lower base of comparison, exports advanced 1.5 percent on a yearly basis in April, the customs office reported. This was faster than the 1.0 percent expected growth and reversed March’s 7.5 percent decrease.

Imports posted an annual increase of 8.4 percent after a 1.9 percent drop in March. This was also bigger than economists’ forecast of 5.4 percent.

As a result, the trade balance showed a bigger surplus of $72.4 billion in April versus $58.6 billion in the previous month. However, the surplus remained below the expected level of $81.4 billion.

Capital Economics economist Zichun Huang said export volumes will retreat over the coming months due to cooling consumer spending in advanced economies and the diminishing tailwind from lower export prices.

However, imports are forecast to rebound in the months ahead as fiscal stimulus for investment spending should lift industrial commodities demand.

Considering import demand could remain resilient but exports face a higher level of risk in coming months, a smaller contribution from trade to growth is likely starting in the second quarter, ING economist Lynn Song said.

Last week, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said China’s exports will pick up again as global demand recovers and an increasing number of Chinese goods become competitive in international markets.

The agency forecast the second largest economy to expand 4.9 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2025.