At the end of October 2023, Navigator CO2 Ventures canceled plans to build a $3.5 billion carbon pipeline. The company said in a public statement that it pulled the plug because of the “unpredictable nature of the regulator and government processes involved,” particularly in South Dakota and Iowa.
“If we don’t do anything, we’re going to have excess corn,” Shaw told reporters.
“We’re really looking at a fork in the road. We’re very lucky. Sometimes there’s not new demand standing out there. We have to take our low-carbon ethanol and make it real low-carbon ethanol.”
IOWA CORN STUDY
Iowa Corn announced the results of a study by Decision Innovation Solutions on how an SAF industry would help farmers and rural communities.
The study said there are no corn-ethanol plants that would qualify for SAF production in Iowa. SAF has to be 50% less carbon intensive than fossil-based jet fuel to qualify as SAF.
By contrast, the study said Brazil produces over seven billion gallons of ethanol expected to qualify for SAF production.
On existing acres, it is estimated that there will be five billion bushels of corn without a home in Iowa alone in the next 20 years. The study estimates that 11 new 200-million-gallon ethanol plants would be built in the state to produce SAF.
In addition, the study said five new ethanol-to-jet SAF production facilities would be built along with three new plants that convert soybean oil, fats and greases to SAF.
“The construction and ongoing operations of these facilities hold the promise to fundamentally transform rural Iowa in ways even bigger than the current biofuels industry,” said David Miller, DIS chief economist and author of the study.
“We have the opportunity to set the stage for the next 25 years when corn production will rise to 20 billion to 21 billion bushels per year based on current acres. No other market but SAF can utilize that corn. If we do not embrace low-carbon ethanol to unlock SAF, we are likely to lose 20 million acres of corn across the Midwest and the $10 billion in farm income those acres create. What will our legacy be?”
BEGINNING OF CORN DOWNTURN
Shaw said the SAF opportunity comes at a time when corn stocks are on the rise and prices are on the decline.
There are other ways for ethanol plants to improve their carbon scores, Shaw said, but right now carbon capture is far more cost-effective and reduces more carbon emissions.
Ethanol plants can reduce energy inputs and provide power to plants using wind energy or solar, he said. A combination of heat and power is something that most ethanol plants are looking to install.
“If you invest and it’s very expensive — it’s almost the cost of building your plant — and you get 10 points on your carbon score on average,” Shaw said.
“If you do carbon capture and sequestration, which costs a lot, lot less for the plant — obviously someone’s building a pipeline to make that work — but for the plant, it’s not that expensive and you get a 30-point reduction (carbon score). So basically, if you don’t do CCS, you almost have to do everything else, and you still may not get there depending on your facility and it would be infinitely more expensive.”
Ryan Sauer, vice president of market development at Iowa Corn, said SAF is a “transformative opportunity” for corn farmers.
“In 30 years, corn yield has improved 77 bushels per acre,” Sauer said during a press call.
“Today corn production is outpacing demand four-to-one and there’s a 2.2-billion-bushel carryout after this crop year. Bottom line is we need more demand for corn. We have most of everything we need today to make this happen. The missing piece is to reduce the carbon footprint of corn ethanol.”
Read more on DTN:
“Buis: Carbon Capture Ag’s Big Moment,” https://www.dtnpf.com/…
Todd Neeley can be reached at todd.neeley@dtn.com.
Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @DTNeeley.
(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
Read More:Ethanol-to-SAF Plant Grand Opening Lauded as Beginning of New Era in Ag
2024-01-26 14:31:00