Mets should pursue Nolan Arenado trade if Cardinals sell

The Mets were thinking big last winter when they pursued a perennial All-Star and planned to move him to third base.

So why not now consider the gold standard at the position?

Nolan Arenado told reporters at the All-Star game this week (including our own Jon Heyman) that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals traded him before the Aug. 1 deadline. The Cardinals have been every bit the disappointment the Mets have been this season and could be in the rare position of turning into sellers this year.

The Mets need to consider this.

Arenado, a 10-time Gold Glove winner, is 32 years old, and though he is having an uncharacteristically underwhelming season at third base, according to his Statcast numbers, potentially would give the Mets the game’s strongest left side of the infield, alongside Francisco Lindor at shortstop.

On offense, Arenado owns a .283/.332/.518 slash line with 19 homers and 62 RBIs.

Adding him to a lineup that includes Lindor, Pete Alonso and Francisco Alvarez likely would be transformational for the Mets.

We all know the money wouldn’t be an issue for the Mets, who were prepared to give Carlos Correa a 12-year deal worth $315 million last offseason before concerns about his ankle scuttled the deal.

Arenado is midway through what eventually became a nine-year deal worth $275 million running through 2027. A team that traded for Arenado would receive 4 ½ years of control on his contract.

Such a mid-range deal, even on the back end, might be the optimal situation for the Mets. This wouldn’t be Manny Machado for the next decade or even Lindor for the next 8 ½ years. If concern grows about Arenado’s defense, he could easily become a full-time DH near the end of his deal.

The question becomes whether the Mets would be willing to part with the prospects needed for such a trade.

A major league talent evaluator we spoke with this week suggested it might take 20-plus years of club control — meaning at least four young players — for the Mets to land Arenado.

Alvarez wouldn’t be a consideration, but at least two from a group that includes catcher Kevin Parada, outfielder Alex Ramirez and pitchers Mike Vasil and Blade Tidwell might be necessary, in addition to Brett Baty.

If the Mets kept Baty, who became their starting third baseman in April, he could shift to a corner outfield role with Arenado onboard.

Steve Cohen has spoken so openly about the Mets’ need to develop the farm system that any trade proposal involving a top prospect, never mind two or three, will likely be a difficult sell for the front office.

But this also isn’t a one-year rental we are talking about or your standard All-Star.

Arenado would boost the Mets’ playoff chances this season — if they still realistically exist when Aug. 1 arrives — and give Cohen the bat he craved last winter when he pursued Correa.

Correa’s .700 OPS at the All-Star break with the Twins suggests the Mets still would be without that bat had the deal materialized. But credit is due to Correa for moving from shortstop to third base and playing his new position at a high level.

The Cardinals still have to be willing to trade Arenado and the Mets to take the risk of surrendering high-level prospects.

It worked out nicely for the Mets the last time the Cardinals traded a perennial Gold Glove corner infielder to Queens. That would be Keith Hernandez, who owns a World Series ring with each organization, and is enshrined in both teams’ Hall of Fame.

Arenado’s addition would potentially be of that magnitude for the Mets.

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Could history repeat itself?

In a column I wrote for Friday’s Post to preview the second half, I mentioned the 2019 Mets as possibly the most recent reminder that a run at the postseason still can materialize for this current group.

The ‘19 team was 10 games under .500 at the All-Star break, but used a 27-10 burst to jump firmly into the wild-card race and competed into the final week of the regular season.

Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo and Luis Guillorme are the remaining players on the active roster from that team.

Two things stand out from the trade deadline that season: Brodie Van Wagenen orchestrated a deal with the Blue Jays for Marcus Stroman that brought another proven arm into the rotation and decided to keep Zack Wheeler, who was headed to free agency after the season.

Stroman’s acquisition might have been Van Wagenen’s shrewdest move in his two seasons as the general manager. The Mets dealt minor-league pitchers Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson to gain 2 ½ seasons of control on Stroman, who emerged as a staple in the rotation.

But the decision to keep Wheeler backfired as the Mets missed the playoffs and the right-hander signed with the Phillies in the offseason. The Mets used the compensatory draft pick they received for Wheeler’s departure to select outfielder Isaiah Greene, who was part of the package to Cleveland that brought Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to Queens.

A fast start to the second half could have the Mets thinking in terms of their ’19 run. That club would have qualified for the postseason with 86 victories if the third wild card existed.

The gamble on keeping players such as Tommy Pham and David Robertson at the trade deadline isn’t as big as the one Van Wagenen took in retaining Wheeler.

Report card confidential

Some of the most difficult decisions I faced in assigning midseason grades was on players bordering between a D and F grade. Among those who fell into the category were McNeil, David Peterson, Daniel Vogelbach and Starling Marte.

Only Marte from that group ultimately received the F grade.

Peterson would have joined him, but the left-hander’s three solid starts since his recall from Triple-A Syracuse saved him.

McNeil’s offensive numbers are disappointing, but I felt there’s been enough from him defensively to warrant the benefit of the doubt.

Vogelbach was saved by his play over the first six weeks of the season, in which his OPS was .812.

Many of the complaints I received about the grades focused on Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, who received C+ and C, respectively. There were calls for both to receive F’s, but let’s be real: As disappointing as both were in the first half, there would be places for them in most, if not all, rotations in MLB. Both had stretches — just not enough of them — during which they resembled aces.

A few takeaways on the ’24 schedule

The most glaring aspect of the Mets’ 2024 schedule, which was released Thursday, is a potentially hellacious August.

In that month, spilling over to Sept. 1, the Mets have two trips that involve stops on the West Coast and last at least nine games. That’s Angels-Rockies-Mariners before Padres-Diamondbacks-White Sox.

The Mets will be home for just nine games in August.

There’s also the Mets’ first trip, in June, to the Rangers’ relatively new Globe Life Field (which opened in 2020).

As previously known, the Mets will play the Phillies in London on June 8 and 9 with a two-day travel cushion ahead of the series.

The Mets open on March 28 at Citi Field against the Brewers. The two teams also close the regular season on Sept. 29 in Milwaukee.

I don’t love the idea of closing against a non-division foe, but in this era with the third wild card, Mets-Brewers probably has the potential to be just as intriguing as Mets-Phillies.