Weekly Forex Forecast (April 17-21, 2023)

Today’s weekly forex forecast covers the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and XAUUSD.

Friday’s session offered another big move from the dollar, so it’ll be up to Monday to confirm or negate things for pairs like EURUSD and GBPUSD.

We also have a potential topping pattern on gold that you won’t want to miss.

Watch the video and scroll down to view the charts to prepare for the week ahead.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

The DXY held above key support last week after testing the 100.80 year-to-date low from February.

As of now, the structure looks nearly identical to the January/February bottom.

However, I need to see more from dollar bulls this week, including a Monday rally to confirm what we saw on Friday.

A close above 101.50 on Monday would start to confirm a near-term bottom for the dollar, but we also need a sustained break above the 102.60 monthly open.

Alternatively, a daily close below 101.50 and sustained break below 100.80 would signal a bearish continuation toward 99.30.

EURUSD Forecast

EURUSD failed to hold above 1.1030 on Friday, so we’ll see if Monday’s price action confirms or invalidates that bearish reversal.

If EURUSD holds below 1.1030 early this week, the 1.0930 area could be next.

Alternatively, a sustained break back above 1.1030 would be bullish for the euro and open up levels like 1.1180.

GBPUSD Forecast

GBPUSD tried to break the April 4th high last week, but failed on Friday.

That said, the pound found support on Friday at the March 24th ascending trend line near 1.2400.

That could trigger some strength on Monday, but the 1.2430-1.2450 area is once again serving as resistance for GBPUSD.

A sustained break below that trend line could give us the move to 1.2290 and possibly the 1.2200 mid-range, while a sustained break above 1.2450 would be bullish toward 1.2520.

USDJPY Forecast

USDJPY lost the 132.90 handle on Thursday, but managed a bullish reclaim on Friday.

As long as the pair is above that mark on the higher time frames, the 134.40 area is exposed.

However, expect sellers to defend 134.40 next week, given its significance since December.

I got bullish on USDJPY at 130.90 earlier this month and will remain so as long as the pair trades above channel support.

Gold (XAUUSD) Forecast

XAUUSD confirmed a possible bearish fakeout last week after closing above the August trend line.

However, gold remains above the $1,990 support level, so shorting at Friday’s close is ill-advised, in my opinion.

A sustained break below $1,990 opens up $1,920 later this month.

Alternatively, a move above last week’s high negates any bearish deviation and opens up levels like $2,070.