Oregon exports plunged by 20% last year. Here’s why

Oregon exports dropped by more than $6 billion last year, an astonishing 20% plunge that wiped out two years of historic gains.

“Consumers are pulling back. You see that translated into the export numbers, for sure,” said Damon Runberg, economist with Business Oregon, the state’s economic development agency.

Federal export data collected by the research organization WISERTrade shows an especially steep fall in semiconductors, Oregon’s largest export. Chip sales overseas fell by $5.7 million, which accounts for nearly the entire drop in overseas sales.

It coincides with a 5% drop in Oregon semiconductor employment last year.

The chip industry soared as the pandemic hit. People snapped up new computers to work from home, and other industries — from appliance manufacturers to automakers — needed every computer chip they could find to meet stimulus-fueled demand for their products.

The stimulus payments dried up after the pandemic, though, and rising inflation all over the world sapped shoppers’ spending power. Consumers had new computers and appliances and didn’t need more. Semiconductor manufacturers and their customers found themselves with a glut of inventory.

Oregon’s chip exports dropped by 14% in 2022 and another 39% last year.

Other industries reported mixed results. Exports of auto and aircraft parts were up sharply while other distinctively Oregon industries, like beverages, were down.

Taking a step back, Runberg said year’s decline in exports is “not really doom and gloom.”

Even with last year’s steep fall, Oregon exports were still 7% higher than in 2019, before the pandemic. And the state’s economic fundamentals remain strong by historical standards, with unemployment under 4% and wages rising as inflation cools.

There’s even cause for optimism in the Oregon’s semiconductor industry, despite last year’s poor results.

Intel is planning a multibillion-dollar expansion to its Hillsboro factories, and more than a dozen other chip companies have set plans to expand their Oregon operations, partly funded by $240 million in state grants and loans. They’re all anticipating growth in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and renewed worldwide demand.

State economists anticipate the semiconductor industry will generate more than 6,000 new jobs over the next several years.

“This is a critical employer in the state,” Runberg said, “and has been for many years.”

This is Oregon Insight, The Oregonian’s weekly look at the numbers behind the state’s economy. View past installments here.

— Mike Rogoway covers Oregon technology and the state economy. Reach him at mrogoway@oregonian.com

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