Opinion | China’s Qin Gang exposes Xi’s secrecy

Qin, a close confidant of Xi who rose swiftly through the diplomatic ranks, hasn’t been seen in public since June 25. After he missed several high-level diplomatic meetings, China’s foreign ministry said in a July 11 news conference that Qin was suffering from “a physical condition.” That explanation is missing from the ministry’s transcript of the news conference. Responding to reports that Qin was caught having an extramarital affair with a Chinese reporter while he was ambassador to Washington, a foreign ministry spokesperson said on July 17, “I have no information to offer.”

On Wednesday, China’s new ambassador to Washington, Xie Feng, told the Aspen Security Forum he couldn’t say if Qin would see Henry Kissinger, who was in Beijing meeting with his “old friend” Xi and several other top Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials. Pressed on Qin’s whereabouts, Xie referred questioners back to the foreign ministry’s non-answer.

Inside the U.S. government there is a lot of speculation and intrigue about the issue but little hard information. U.S. officials initially guessed Qin had caught covid, but now he’s been gone longer than any bout of the illness would normally last. Several U.S. officials told me they thought the allegations of Qin’s affair were credible but not confirmed. Several said that, either way, he likely fell victim to infighting inside China’s top leadership clique, which is notoriously fratricidal.

“Qin has a huge number of enemies inside the government,” one senior U.S. official told me. “He was a marginally talented person, who, just through being close with Xi, catapulted up.”

Many of Qin’s rivals had good reason to be jealous of his meteoric rise. After Qin’s wife gave Xi’s wife homemade mooncakes, the story goes, Qin won entrance into Xi’s inner social circle. He was elevated from ambassador to foreign minister and made a member of the Politburo last year, and this year appointed state councilor as well. That made him one of the most powerful people in China. Qin’s predecessor as state councilor Wang Yi, now director of the CCP’s Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission, is seen as Qin’s top rival. He did meet with Kissinger this week.

“The question is who released this information, accurate or not, and who benefits? Wang Yi is at the top of that list,” another U.S. official told me.

Officially, Beijing has not given the Biden administration any explanation for Qin’s absence. And the Biden team isn’t pressing for one because they don’t believe the CCP would tell them the truth anyway. After all, Beijing never explained why Xi himself vanished from public view for large periods during the pandemic.

Typically, in cases where top Chinese officials are accused of sexual impropriety, the party circles the wagons and goes after the woman. When Chinese tennis champion Peng Shuai’s relationship with a top official was exposed, she was the one who was disappeared and harshly punished. But last month, a top Chinese executive was forced to resign in the face of public outrage after being caught on video with his mistress.

Qin’s prolonged absence may indicate that he’s being set up to take the fall this time. He may be ultimately brought up on corruption charges, which would allow Xi to get rid of Qin without establishing a precedent that the CCP will now start punishing officials for extramarital affairs. Or he might just reappear and pretend like nothing happened. There’s no way to know. But now the world will get to see what Xi does when one of his handpicked allies gets into trouble.

Qin’s case also reflects a bigger problem: Xi’s government is not just secretive about officials and their scandals. Beijing is also pulling back on basic transparency across the board — and that has huge implications for the U.S. government, international businesses and anyone else who needs information from inside China.

The Chinese government is now restricting the release of basic economic and financial data that businesses and governments depend on. U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly recently warned of a “tragic miscalculation” unless Beijing lifts the veil of secrecy over its military and nuclear weapons expansion. The Chinese government initially concealed the outbreak of the covid-19 virus and continues to withhold crucial covid-related information from the world. China’s persecution of journalists and academics who tell unapproved truths has skyrocketed.

What’s worse, China is exporting this model of secrecy and unaccountability. In its dealings with international organizations and countries where it has influence, the Chinese government is trying to co-opt others into accepting extreme secrecy as a new normal in governance.

“Countries striking deals with Beijing are discovering that they are expected to follow China’s lead, limiting transparency and accountability just as Chinese leaders do at home,” National Endowment for Democracy Vice President for Studies and Analysis Christopher Walker wrote in Foreign Affairs. “The result of this pattern of engagement is a gradual erosion of global norms of transparency and open government — and the rise of new ones of concealment and opacity.”

Ultimately, the fate of Qin Gang is inconsequential; Xi can always elevate another one of his yes men. But what is very consequential is that Xi doesn’t seem to feel compelled to explain to the world what’s going on. The CCP’s growing secrecy adds more risk to dealing with China on every level.